AAPL DCF Valuation 2014

Summary:

  • Based on my DCF analysis below I feel that the stock is undervalued. Please see the conclusions and detailed analysis at the end of the report.
  • With the iwatch patent approved, and iphone6 in the wings, this analysis is still conservative.

Analysis:
My analysis is based on the following financial data for Apple:

Financial data used to feed the model
As always, please click on the image to enlarge.  The per-share information for aapl:
Financial per share data for aapl


Based on the initial discounted analysis, these are the numbers I could come up with the online calculator at gurufocus.com:
DCF analysis with 13% growth and 7% terminal growth
This basic analysis gives us a fair value of $108 per share. Note that this estimate is very conservative with a terminal growth rate of 7%.

Including the tangible book value per share (TVBPS)
The tangible book value per share is calculated as:
TBVPS = (total tangible assets) / (number of outstanding shares)

Now all of this analysis is without the huge cash reserves that Apple maintains. The total cash aapl has as of July 2014 is about $159.8B. The number of outstanding shares is 5.99B. This brings the cash reserves per share as about $26.67. I am going to factor this into the tangible assets held by apple to run the model valuation.
DCF analysis with the tangible book value factored in
This approach however is using a terminal annual growth rate of 7%. Note that this is very conservative since AAPL has slowed down its growth to 13% annually from its explosive growth earlier. Even with this, factoring all the cash in, we get a fair value of $135 per share.

Now, if I am further pessimistic and make the growth rate closer to the inflation - 4%. These are the results:
Super conservative evaluation with cash factored in for aapl 2014
Conclusions
Based on the analysis done here,
  1. AAPL still seems to be undervalued at $99 based on DCF. The fair value of the share while factoring in the cash is about $128 as per my estimates.
  2. These estimates are conservative and do not take the new growth drivers such as the iwatch or any other product including the iphone6 into account. 
  3. December is historically a huge quarter for aapl, so the holiday season quarter should potentially drive the stock price up.

Disclaimer:
* I am long aapl
Please note: I have done this simple calculation for my understanding of the intrinsic value of the shares only. Please do your own due diligence before investing.

1 Response to "AAPL DCF Valuation 2014"

  1. Anonymous says:

    Thanks this analysis is very useful!!

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