Market timing versus product maturity

Contemplating about this since a while now. Market timing is critical from a product ingestion stand point. However, ensuring that the product is stable and adds value is equally important. This has been evidenced from the recent apple maps release.

Precious metals (SGOL/GLD) selloff

In the past 5 days gold has fallen approximately 14% from its highs.

Reasons:
* Early last week GS asked its investors to sell gold based on broad economic indicators. Targets 2013-$1450 and 2014-$1270.
* Global crises with the Euro bailout.
* Cyprus dumping 10 tonnes of gold to support bailout. Sparks mass selloff and a chain reaction.

Gold has been oversold beyond limits as pointed out by this chart:
Gold is oversold - 4.5 times standard dev below 50DMA

Gold has fallen over 4.5 standard deviations below its 50 day moving average (DMA). It has fallen below the 4 standard deviations mark only 10 times since 1975. This may be a good time to buy?

Rising labor costs in China - Currency valuation?


Now that the labor costs are going up, and the age of the working population increasing, how will China keep its exports at the top levels.

2013: Rising labor costs in China

The birth control scheme has resulted in a check in population, but at the same time this makes fewer individuals available for labor, driving the costs up over time. To keep the economy booming, there could be 2 ways out:

  1. Remove birth control and let population grow again. Not sure if this is possible since the mindset of the population changes over time.
  2. Like always, devalue the yuan so the labor is still cheap and the exports continue at the same pace they are right now!
Which will be chosen? 



powered by Blogger | WordPress by Newwpthemes | Converted by BloggerTheme