AAPL DCF Valuation 2014
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
8:41 AM
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1 Comment
Labels: 2014 , aapl , apple , cash per share , dcf , discounted cash flow , evaluation , model , pricing
Labels: 2014 , aapl , apple , cash per share , dcf , discounted cash flow , evaluation , model , pricing
Summary:
Analysis:
My analysis is based on the following financial data for Apple:
As always, please click on the image to enlarge. The per-share information for aapl:
Based on the initial discounted analysis, these are the numbers I could come up with the online calculator at gurufocus.com:
This basic analysis gives us a fair value of $108 per share. Note that this estimate is very conservative with a terminal growth rate of 7%.
Including the tangible book value per share (TVBPS)
The tangible book value per share is calculated as:
TBVPS = (total tangible assets) / (number of outstanding shares)
Now all of this analysis is without the huge cash reserves that Apple maintains. The total cash aapl has as of July 2014 is about $159.8B. The number of outstanding shares is 5.99B. This brings the cash reserves per share as about $26.67. I am going to factor this into the tangible assets held by apple to run the model valuation.
This approach however is using a terminal annual growth rate of 7%. Note that this is very conservative since AAPL has slowed down its growth to 13% annually from its explosive growth earlier. Even with this, factoring all the cash in, we get a fair value of $135 per share.
Now, if I am further pessimistic and make the growth rate closer to the inflation - 4%. These are the results:
Conclusions
Based on the analysis done here,
Disclaimer:
* I am long aapl
Please note: I have done this simple calculation for my understanding of the intrinsic value of the shares only. Please do your own due diligence before investing.
- Based on my DCF analysis below I feel that the stock is undervalued. Please see the conclusions and detailed analysis at the end of the report.
- With the iwatch patent approved, and iphone6 in the wings, this analysis is still conservative.
Analysis:
My analysis is based on the following financial data for Apple:
Financial data used to feed the model |
Financial per share data for aapl |
Based on the initial discounted analysis, these are the numbers I could come up with the online calculator at gurufocus.com:
DCF analysis with 13% growth and 7% terminal growth |
Including the tangible book value per share (TVBPS)
The tangible book value per share is calculated as:
TBVPS = (total tangible assets) / (number of outstanding shares)
Now all of this analysis is without the huge cash reserves that Apple maintains. The total cash aapl has as of July 2014 is about $159.8B. The number of outstanding shares is 5.99B. This brings the cash reserves per share as about $26.67. I am going to factor this into the tangible assets held by apple to run the model valuation.
DCF analysis with the tangible book value factored in |
Now, if I am further pessimistic and make the growth rate closer to the inflation - 4%. These are the results:
Super conservative evaluation with cash factored in for aapl 2014 |
Based on the analysis done here,
- AAPL still seems to be undervalued at $99 based on DCF. The fair value of the share while factoring in the cash is about $128 as per my estimates.
- These estimates are conservative and do not take the new growth drivers such as the iwatch or any other product including the iphone6 into account.
- December is historically a huge quarter for aapl, so the holiday season quarter should potentially drive the stock price up.
Disclaimer:
* I am long aapl
Please note: I have done this simple calculation for my understanding of the intrinsic value of the shares only. Please do your own due diligence before investing.
Thanks this analysis is very useful!!